New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for the U.S.

6 days 21 hours ago
Today ECRI is announcing May 2016 as a new growth rate cycle trough date for the U.S. Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using ...
ECRI

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

1 week 3 days ago
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks down to 144.5 from 144.8. The growth rate edges down to 5.0% from 5.1%, a 55-week low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky...
ECRI

U.S. WLI Monthly Edges Down

1 week 6 days ago
The level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges down to 142.4 from 143.0, the growth rate falls to 5.5% from 7.9%, a one-year low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters
ECRI

U.S. WLI Ticks Up

2 weeks 3 days ago
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 144.8 from 144.4. The growth rate decreases to 5.1% from 5.4%, a 54-week low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent article on Bloomberg.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Co...
ECRI

Improvement in Global Trade is Cyclical, Not Structural

2 weeks 6 days ago
Half a year ago, we first flagged the “improving global growth outlook” to our clients — which has only recently dawned on the International Monetary Fund . Already, the cyclical improvement following that call has had a wide-ranging impact on international economic activity, including trade. A couple of years ago, in 2015, we observed that “world trade growth has essentially collapsed after re...
ECRI

Improving Global Outlook and Italian Exports

3 weeks ago
While the global economic outlook is positive, Italy – with a Q4 2016 GDP figure that is still more than 7% below its 2008 peak – is not riding the wave of higher global growth. Furthermore, with increasing CPI volatility that has been heightening uncertainty about inflation and dampening consumer spending, the Italian consumer has been unable to provide significant support to the economy of la...
ECRI

Wage Growth Widely Misunderstood

3 weeks ago
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen pointed to “nonexistent” real wage growth to justify holding rates at zero percent in 2014. There is room, she said, "for real wage gains before we need to worry that that is creating overall inflationary pressure for the economy,” suggesting that real wage growth was a precondition for rate hikes.Fast-forward to today, and we find the Fed ignoring that dictum...
ECRI

Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective

3 weeks 3 days ago
See link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.The market is somewhat surprised by this healthy jobs report that fits with the upturn in overall economic growth that we’ve been discussing with you for months now. The Fed’s “full-employment” mandate has been met, and this morning’s update on ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge shows that underlying inflation pressures haven’t retreated.  A key ex...
ECRI

Today’s Jobs Data in Cyclical Perspective

3 weeks 3 days ago
See link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.The market is somewhat surprised by this healthy jobs report that fits with the upturn in overall economic growth that we’ve been discussing with you for months now. The Fed’s “full-employment” mandate has been met, and this morning’s update on ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge shows that underlying inflation pressures haven’t retreated.  A key ex...
ECRI

U.S. WLI Increases

3 weeks 3 days ago
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 144.4 from 143.2. The growth rate ticks down to 5.4% from 5.9%, a one-year low.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on CNBC.- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index...
ECRI

U.S. FIG Remains Elevated

3 weeks 3 days ago
U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 113.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute."The USFIG was flat in April, having stayed since mid-2016 around its highest readings since 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "In other words, underlying inflation pressu...
ECRI

Near-term Pop, Long-term Drop

4 weeks ago
U.S. economic growth in a cyclical upturn since mid-2016:•    Year-over-year GDP growth remains near a 1¼-year high, and could get to a two-year high in Q2 2017•    Industrial production growth is already at a two-year high•    Jobless rate is at a ten-year low•    Real consumer spending growth bottomed out last spring at around 2%, but has stayed closer to 3% since last summer Moreover, the U....
ECRI

Chinese Export Outlook Changes

4 weeks 1 day ago
In November 2016, ECRI predicted that Chinese export growth “is likely to revive further”, based on our Chinese Leading Exports Index . Indeed, Chinese export growth has steadily improved, and the March data surprised many as its year-over-year growth surged to over a two-year high. As a result, Q1 2017 real export growth rose again to a nine-quarter high, after returning to positive territory ...
ECRI

U.S. WLI Decreases

1 month ago
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips to 143.2 from 144.1. The growth rate edges down to 5.9% from 6.5%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
ECRI

U.S. WLI Slipped

1 month 1 week ago
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index slipped to 144.1 from 145.0. The growth rate decreased to 6.5% from 7.0%.To put the economy in perspective please see links below: - read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
ECRI

Brazilian Cyclical Growth Prospects

1 month 1 week ago
Three years ago Brazil was about to host the World Cup, with an opportunity to showcase just how far it had advanced. Instead, the commodity bust arrived and the economy imploded, with Brazil entering a severe business cycle downturn. In fact, Brazil remains mired in a deep recession – the worst on record. This is clearly evident from the sharp decline in the level of ECRI’s Brazilian Coinciden...
ECRI

"America First" in Perspective

1 month 1 week ago
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented ""America First" in Perspective," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please use this link to download a PDF of the presentation slides, including notes.• From a near-term, cyclical point of view, our analysis of the outlook is unambiguously positive.  • But when we expand our view to consider the next several years, becau...
ECRI
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34 minutes 8 seconds ago
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